This file on the American presidential elections will not make a prediction on the results of next November 6 ; rather, it offers an assessment of four years of Democratic governance in the White House, four years during which conservative political forces became radicalized. Whatever the outcome of the elections, the Tea Party will have to be reckoned with, and experience shows that it will not be easy for anyone.
In 2008, political analysts wanted to believe that Barack Obama’s victory marked the beginning of a long-term political realignment. A new coalition seemed to be crystallizing around the charismatic Democratic candidate capable of putting an end to the long-term domination of the conservatives. Patent in its most radical form since the election of George W. Bush Jr. in 2000, it began in 1980 with the arrival of Reagan in the White House. Young people, minorities and women, introduced to politics or reconciled with it thanks to Obama’s personality and his promise of change, should be able to unite, for at least a generation, against an increasingly obsessed American right. by morality and opposed to state intervention, even as the American economy was on the verge of collapse.
Las ! As early as 2010, Democratic candidates for Congress suffered resounding defeats. The president’s difficulty in getting the country out of a financial crisis which was hitting growth and family incomes head-on certainly contributed to this. But there was more. The real progress that he was able to obtain (the reform of social insurance, the regulation of finance first and foremost) provoked the anger of conservatives more than they satisfied his supporters. For the most progressive, Obama appeared as a timid president, having failed to implement the reforms promised within the framework of what was to be a “ new New Deal “. The work of his early years as well as his status as the first black president of the United States nevertheless caused a radicalization of the Grand Old Party, pulled towards an anti-federalist position by the Tea Party at its base. The right, in its hard, polymorphous, headless, but tenacious version, had therefore not disappeared with the failure of John McCain and Sarah Palin in 2008.
As a Reformer, Was Obama Doomed to Failure ? Did the reforms undertaken necessarily lead to a polarization of the country? ? Was political fortune doomed to dissipate ? The results of the presidential elections which will be held on November 6 will decide, probably in favor of a negative answer. While awaiting the verdict of the polls, this file aims to provide avenues for reflection, by exploring different fields. Thus, in his review of the work of George Edwards III, OverreachAurélie Godet invites us to understand the reasons why Obama’s transformative ambition could not achieve its objectives.
Should he win, Obama will continue to face him from this hard right with which his rival, Mitt Romney, has continued to dance a hesitant tango. This file therefore takes stock of the forces on the right. Christine Zumello’s essay helps to understand the process of selection of their candidate by the Republicans in a double context of radicalization specific to the party and external, and relaxation of safeguards on campaign financing. Romain Huret invites us to find the roots of the Tea Party in the anti-federalist conservatism born in the America of prosperity. Finally, in an essay entitled “ The war against women », Jennifer Merchant wonders how far this right is ready to go in the direction of social conservatism and the questioning of liberal achievements, particularly in the area of women’s rights.
Articles already published online:
Aurélie Godet, “ The limits of presidential power », published on 1er October 2012
Jennifer Merchant, The “war on women” », published on October 22, 2012
Christine Zumello, The Factory of the Republican candidate, a look back at the primaries », published on October 30, 2012