According to the German daily Bild, Russia presented during the Abu Dhabi talks a series of demands that go far beyond the Ukrainian case. Moscow describes them as the foundation of a “new European security order.” The New York Times also gained access to the document outlining these demands, dated November 10.
Regarding Ukraine, the Russian demands revive most of the war objectives Moscow has articulated since the start of its large-scale invasion.
- Ukraine would have to accept losing almost one-fifth of its territory. On top of the 110,000 square kilometers already occupied, representing 18% of the country, would be the parts of Donbass still held by Kyiv, mainly in Donetsk Oblast.
- Ukraine would see its sovereignty over international policy largely curtailed. Its membership in NATO would be ruled out, while membership in the European Union would possibly remain open. According to the New York Times, Moscow was considering Ukraine’s accession to the EU only if the country did not participate in the EU’s common defense policy.
- Zelensky stated that the United States had asked whether Ukraine would be willing to cede the Donbass region, located in the east of the country, to Russia, in exchange for NATO membership.
- Ukraine would finally lose part of its military capabilities. Odessa and Mykolaiv would be demilitarized and could no longer host naval bases.
Beyond Ukraine, the Russian demands align with what the White House has signaled, calling for a “negotiation of the architecture of European security.”
- The Russia wants NATO to withdraw its troops and bases from the alliance’s borders as they existed in 1997, excluding from the alliance the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland (which joined in 1999), Bulgaria, the three Baltic states, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia (in 2004), Albania, Croatia (in 2009), Montenegro (in 2017), North Macedonia (in 2020), Finland (in 2023) and Sweden (in 2024).
- According to the New York Times, Russian officials present in Abu Dhabi clearly indicated that they viewed the Cold War and the Warsaw Pact as a potential model for a post-war Europe in Ukraine. Yuri Ushakov also said that Putin had insisted during his discussions with Kusner and Witkoff that the Russian 2021 proposal for NATO withdrawal still reflected “our vision of the pillars of an indivisible security architecture.”
- Moreover, whereas in 2021 Russia had asked NATO to abandon its nuclear-sharing agreements, Moscow now demands that France and the United Kingdom rule out using their nuclear weapons to protect other European countries.
According to the Belarusian newspaper Nasha Niva, the Russian proposal also aims to transform Moldova into a federal republic bringing together Moldova, Gagauzia and Transnistria. If Moldova joins the European Union, these two latter regions could hold independence referendums.
Moscow approaches these talks as if facing Ukrainian capitulation, and offers in return only renunciation of the levers of pressure it has itself installed.
- Its nuclear weapons would be withdrawn from Belarus and Moscow would also commit not to deploy intermediate-range missiles there, such as Iskander and Orechnik.
- Its troops would also withdraw from Transnistria.
Vladimir Putin’s remarks further confirm that there is no room for negotiating for Russia, in line with what has been dubbed the Gromyko doctrine.
- “Ask for the maximum, including what you have never had; present ultimatums, for you will always find an Occidental willing to negotiate; finally, concede nothing, for you will always find an offer that matches what you are seeking, demand more to obtain a third or half of what you did not have at the start.”
On November 12, at the Kremlin, while receiving American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the Russian president rejected any foreign military presence in Ukraine after a peace agreement.
- He warned that European forces deployed in that framework would become “legitimate military targets” and that fighting would resume immediately.
- He also dismissed the idea of demilitarized zones, arguing that only the state border could serve as the dividing line. The Institute for the Study of War sees this as a reaffirmation of a claim to the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, including territories the Russian army has never conquered.
Vladimir Medinski, the president’s adviser and head of the Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi, for his part excluded any territorial exchange as of November 11 and announced the ongoing expansion of the Russian “security zone” toward Sumy and Kharkiv.
- The Russia, he added, would reclaim “every inch of its land, one way or another,” implying that the Russian aggression could continue beyond the territories already conquered in Ukraine.