The Bureau of Economic Analysis released yesterday, Thursday, October 29, new statistics that were highly anticipated ahead of the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3.
- The price index of consumer spending rose 3.6% year over year in September and 0.5% for the month alone.
The Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman proposes to talk about “trumpflation.”
- “Trump likes to put his name on things, but this time it would be fully justified: he built this context himself, first with his tariffs, then with his war [in Iran].”
- The first rupture corresponds to the entry into force of the tariffs with the “Liberation Day” of April 2, 2025.
- The second begins with the war triggered on February 28 against Iran. Diesel has risen by 70% since the start of the conflict, and reached a record level of $6.52 per gallon on September 22.
As shown by most polls and the major campaign advertising, four days before the election, fuel prices and the cost of living are the main campaign topics.
- An American consumes on average nearly five times more gasoline and diesel per year than a resident of the Union, according to calculations by the magazine.
- According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, household consumer spending rose by $113.1 billion in September, i.e., 0.5% in value, but only $2.6 billion once inflation is deducted, i.e., less than 0.1% in volume.
- Households are absorbing the shock by drawing on their savings, which have fallen to $911.1 billion, or 3.8% of disposable income, compared with 6 to 7% in the years before the pandemic.
The gap between inflation in the United States and the Federal Reserve’s 2% target now stands at 1.6 percentage points, the highest level since the end of the post-pandemic inflationary period of 2022.