What the Trump-Putin Diesel Deal Conceals

The American president announced yesterday, October 9, that he had reached an agreement with the Kremlin.

• According to Trump, Moscow will put « immediately » 300,000 tonnes of diesel « on the American and global market », followed by an additional 500,000 tonnes in November, then a further one million tonnes « immediately after ».
• Three million tonnes more would be delivered « depending on the state » of Russian refineries.
• He adds: « Thanks to our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz and this tremendous announcement concerning Russian energy, diesel prices for Americans, and even for the world at large, will FALL, AT A RECORD PACE AND VERY FAST! ».
• The Kremlin confirmed the agreement in the evening and Putin said he was « convinced that this will have a positive impact on the whole world economy ».
• The deal comes just weeks before the midterm elections and as the price of diesel at U.S. pumps reached a record level on September 22 at $6.53 per gallon.

The American administration had already pressured Kyiv to end strikes on Russian refineries, which Ukraine agreed to in exchange for a suspension of Moscow’s attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

• A U.S. official, cited by Axios, said: « Zelensky was mistaken in his assessment of the situation. By continuing to strike refineries, he compromises the good understanding he has built with Trump over the past six months. » ¹
• The Ukrainian president condemned the agreement, calling it not fair or honest and a « unjustified gift to Putin ».
• Witkoff and Kushner planned to travel to Moscow and Kyiv next week to discuss a peace proposal. It remains unclear whether the trip will go ahead.
• Putin reportedly refused, during his call with Trump, to commit to new peace talks.

It is highly unlikely that the announcement will have a tangible impact on the prices and availability of diesel on the market. Yet the agreement could chiefly contribute to further normalizing relations between Washington and Moscow, while placing renewed pressure on Kyiv.

• The Treasury-issued authorization is valid until April 2027. It marks the first exemption for Russian diesel beyond the usual thirty-day period since February 2022. ².

Russia had banned the export of gasoline in April and of diesel in July to prioritize the domestic market, while repeated Ukrainian strikes against refineries across Russian territory triggered a severe fuel shortage nationwide.

• Earlier in the summer, Russia—traditionally a major exporter of oil and refined products—had even to import gasoline from India and Kazakhstan.
• Today, Russian refineries operate at about 60% capacity, so it is not certain Moscow can place the announced volumes on the market. Indeed, Russia does not face an export problem but a production one, and the Kremlin has not confirmed these figures.
• Moreover, even if it could deliver the stated volumes, 300,000 tonnes represent roughly 2.2 million barrels, less than three days’ worth of Russia’s normal exports.
• The agreement could enable Russia to export a little over 100,000 barrels per day, far below the usual 800,000 b/d. For comparison, Russia exported approximately 2.5 million tonnes of diesel in June 2025.
• With the Middle East refinery disruptions, it is unlikely that pump prices will fall significantly beyond the announced effect.

Europe has maintained an embargo on imports of refined Russian petroleum products since February 2023.