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1 — A Historic Collapse
The most expensive campaign in history, deeply skewed, notably in terms of financial resources and the redrawing of electoral districts, failed to reverse the trend that had been evident in the polls for several months. As of January 3, during the inauguration of the 120th Congress, the Democrats will control the House (with a sizable majority potentially reaching up to 255 seats, against 180 for Republicans) and the Senate (with a majority of at least 4 seats).
Among the night’s most surprising results:
- James Talarico pulled off the upset. For the first time since 1988, a Democrat wins a Senate seat in Texas. Democrats also captured the state’s governorship. It marks as much a Republican defeat as a defeat for Elon Musk, who had invested around $200 million in this race.
- In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won the Senate race against incumbent Republican Roger Marshall with 51.1% of the vote, based on 94% of ballots counted (as of 7 a.m., Paris time). The last time Kansas elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 1932, when the Weimar Republic still existed in Germany.
- Democrats were also on track to win the Pennsylvania State Senate (for the first time in more than thirty years), which, together with the re-election of Josh Shapiro and the retention of the State House, would allow them to secure the trifecta. If the current trend continues, Democrats could reach a total of 22 trifectas (versus 16 before the election).
2 — The House
To flip the House, Democrats needed a net gain of three seats, Republicans having only a slim majority of 218 seats before the election. Projections far exceed this threshold, ranging from 235 seats (CNBC) to 255 (NBC).
This result is all the more significant given that Republicans had redrawn several districts to their advantage before the election.
Among the seats won include:
- The 6th district of Kentucky, won by the GOP in seven consecutive elections and carried by Trump with a 15-point margin in 2024. Zach Dembo’s victory illustrates the scale of the Democratic wave in Republican terrain, nationwide.
- The 11th district of North Carolina, which becomes Democratic for the first time since 2010. Donald Trump had won it by a 9-point margin in 2024.
- The 15th district of Texas, won by Bobby Pulido, where Trump had won by 18 points in 2024, before redistricting. In this district, where more than 80% of residents are Latino, results indicate a swing in the Latino vote compared with the 2024 presidential election. As the Washington Post notes, “Latinos have emerged as the quintessential swing voters in the country.”
- The 15th district of Ohio, won by Democrat Don Leonard, creating a surprise in a district labeled “lean Republican,” which Trump had won by 10 points in 2024.
3 — The Senate
Democrats won a majority in the upper chamber by securing at least 54 seats, according to provisional results at 7 a.m. Paris time, including the defeat of Republican Susan Collins in Maine by Troy Jackson. The Democratic candidate is also leading in Michigan, while ballots in Alaska, where Democrat Mary Peltola leads for now, could take days or weeks to be counted. Several states that had not elected Democratic senators for decades, such as Kansas since 1932 and Texas since 1988, shifted.
Among the night’s major surprises was the defeat of Darline Graham, sister of Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of Trump who died in July, in a state that Trump had won by 18.2 points over Harris in 2024. Based on 95% of ballots counted, Democratic candidate Annie Andrews won with 51.1% of the vote, versus 46.7% for Graham.
In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic champion in wheelchair basketball, also flipped a Republican seat by defeating Republican Ashley Hinson. The latest polls gave Turek a narrow lead, while the state had been won by Trump with a 13.2-point margin in 2024. In the same state, Democrats also won all three House districts (1st, 2nd, and 3rd), all previously held by Republicans in the prior term.
This majority will give the party substantial leverage in the Senate, particularly on nominations and budget issues. It will, however, remain insufficient to overcome the filibuster, which requires 60 votes, and will not allow overriding a Donald Trump veto, which could prompt some lawmakers to bargain their support to advance their priorities.
4 — An Anti-Trump Vote?
The decline of the Republican vote relative to the 2024 presidential election is visible nationwide, including in the most solidly Republican states and districts, where Democrats improved Kamala Harris’s score by several dozen points in 2024.
This is especially true in Midwest states where agriculture plays a significant role in the economy, such as Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas. Farmers were among the hardest hit by the Trump administration’s tariff policy and by the Iran war, which drove up fuel prices. Diesel prices, used by farming equipment, rose 71% in a year, from $3.68 per gallon to $6.29 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).
The administration’s tariff policy appears to have played a key role in several states: according to a Bloomberg classification that cross-referenced Senate races with three tariff-related economic indicators (consumers’ exposure to higher prices, harm to exports, and the dynamics of industrial employment), the four most exposed states—Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, and South Carolina—all voted Democratic.
Donald Trump, who had urged Republican voters during his campaign speeches to vote as if his name were on the ballot, ultimately posted overnight on his Truth Social network: “I wasn’t on the ballot, and if I had been, we would have won BY A LANDSLIDE!” He told Fox News he was “a little surprised” by the result: “I think Iran had something to do with it, but at the same time, people understood the significance of what I did.” He also congratulated the Democrats, adding: “The Democrats did a good job. Really.” “It’s been a long time since they’ve been fighting me… They have in their ranks tremendous and talented individuals.”
The candidates Trump personally endorsed lost the elections, the most notable cases being Darline Graham in South Carolina, Ken Paxton in Texas, Michael Whatley in North Carolina, and Mike Collins in Georgia.
Corruption cases, abuses of power, and potential insider trading involving members of the Republican administration and some of the closest associates of the Trump circle dominated much of the campaign.
5 — What Does This Mean Going Forward?
With a majority in both chambers, Democrats will be in a strong position to press the White House to concede on Medicaid and food aid cuts, as well as on the substantial increase in the Department of Homeland Security’s budget, particularly the ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) agency. They can also oppose the significant Pentagon budget increase demanded by Trump.
The cryptocurrency, technology, defense, and fossil-fuel sectors, in particular, spent hundreds of millions of dollars to elect Republican candidates to advance their interests in Congress. These firms benefited from tax cuts, public contracts, mergers, deregulation, and presidential pardons granted by Trump. In anticipation of a Democratic victory, several large companies have already begun hiring former Democratic aides to reconnect with the party: Paramount Skydance recruited a former member of the Biden administration; Palantir and the two giants of predictive markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, hired former party advisers.
A majority in both chambers will also allow Democrats to launch investigations targeting Trump, members of his administration, and his “representatives,” such as Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who influence U.S. policy and conduct negotiations without Senate confirmation. One of Democrats’ first targets could be Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, heavily criticized – by Democrats but also by some Republican lawmakers – for launching the Iran war on Trump’s orders without consulting Congress, for restricting journalists’ access to the Pentagon, and for failing to provide a full accounting of the war’s cost. Republican Thomas Massie has pledged to force a vote on his impeachment as early as November. Among other potential targets are Attorney General Todd Blanche and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump himself could face a new impeachment proceeding before the end of his term.
The White House has been preparing since at least April for a possible defeat: Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, and Russell Vought, the budget director, reportedly identified several executive measures Trump could implement without going through Congress in areas such as immigration, tariffs, housing, and federal spending.
The White House lawyers are said to have also instructed political appointees and agency heads on how to respond to possible subpoenas and requests for documents. Trump himself could invoke executive privilege to shield his communications with his private advisers from Congress; the White House has reportedly sought a legal opinion from the Department of Justice on this matter.
But undeniably, with two more years in the White House, Donald Trump is now a “lame duck.”
As the two parties now turn toward the 2028 presidential election, the lessons each will draw from tonight’s vote will be crucial. Adam Schiff, a California senator, cautioned Democrats not to read the results as a full validation of their party: “It reflects more the disgust, aversion, and rejection of the Republican agenda. So we must stand up for our cause, and that is what we must do.”