Midterms: 99% of Districts Slid Toward the Democrats

Democrats captured overnight the midterm elections, seizing at least 20 Senate seats (in addition to the 34 seats they already held that were not up for vote), and at least 218 seats in the House of Representatives, the threshold required for a majority. They lead in 39 other districts, which could lift their majority to as many as 257 seats.

According to election analyst Sean Trende, of RealClearPolitics, this is “by far” the worst defeat for a party since 1974¹.

• The rejection of the Republican Party and Trump is evident in almost every county: the shift toward Democratic Senate candidates relative to 2024 is about 16 points this year, whereas it was about 5 points in favor of Trump in 2024 versus 2020.

• For Senate races, Democratic candidates performed better than Kamala Harris in 99.7% of counties, according to provisional results at 7:50 a.m. Paris time.
• The Republican candidates only outperformed Donald Trump in five counties: Grant, Traverse and Le Sueur in Minnesota, Sumter in Florida, and Adams in Illinois.

In the House, the shift toward Democrats is nearly 15 points on average.

• It surpasses 40 points in two Hispanic districts in Texas: the 28th, which Trump won by 10 points in 2024 and where the Democrat Henry Cuellar now leads by 36 points, and the 15th, where a 18-point Trump advantage turned into a Democratic lead of 23 points.
• In Tennessee’s 4th district, which Trump had won by 24 points, Democrats and Republicans are neck-and-neck: fewer than 300 votes separate them, with 99% counted.
• In total, Democrats lead in 56 districts that Trump won in 2024, according to provisional results at 7:50 a.m. Paris time.