Much appreciated across the Atlantic, the predictive markets appeared in France during the regional elections. The predipol site offers a free virtual Paris game on the outcome of the ballot. Interview with Augustin Landier, one of his designers, on the principle and the scientific issues of this experience, while waiting to confront the forecasts of the bettors at the verdict of the ballot boxes.
Summary of questions:
- What is predipol ?
-
- What is the principle of predictive markets ?
-
- What do you expect from predipol in terms of scientific contributions ?
- Comparison with financial markets
-
- On this predictive market, where the information available to the bettors for “ make profits »» ?
-
- Is the lack of financial incentive not an obstacle ?
-
- Is there not, as in a financial market, a risk of speculative bubble ?
- Comparison with polls
-
- Do these predictive markets replace the polls or are they complementary ?
-
- What are the advantages of the predictive markets in relation to the surveys ?