China’s trade surplus with France has been shrinking since the start of the year relative to 2025. It fell by 10% over the January-September period, making the country the only major European trading partner of Beijing to experience a decline.
- China’s trade surplus with the European Union has risen sharply this year: the bloc accounts for nearly one-third of Beijing’s overall surplus, amounting to $311 billion.
- Chinese exports have especially surged toward Germany since the start of the year (+20.5%), and China’s surplus with the country has almost doubled compared with the same period in 2025, to $41 billion.
We observe a similar phenomenon, although smaller in magnitude, among the other large European economies:
- Netherlands (+13.2%, $70.2 billion), Italy (+17.1%, $24.8 billion), Spain (+14.3%, $31.2 billion)…
- France thus stands out as an exception in Europe. Since the start of the year, the twelve-month rolling Chinese surplus with Germany has risen by 80% and with the United Kingdom by 18%, while it has fallen by 4% with France.
- When the Chinese surplus is compared to the total bilateral trade, Germany’s position vis-à-vis China has, since spring, been more imbalanced than France’s position – something that had not occurred since at least 2018.
Customs data suggest that the decline in the surplus with France this year, contrary to the “second Chinese shock” affecting the rest of Europe, mainly reflects French exports of aerospace products—particularly aircraft engines—and pharmaceuticals, which have risen sharply relative to 2025.
- Other factors, such as the drop in shipments of small parcels from China to France (-78% in July year-on-year, compared with -59% in Germany or -51% in Italy), which since July 2026 have been subjected to a European €3 tax, could also have played a role.1.
- Conversely, France’s imports of cars and electronic products from China have risen sharply this year.
- The value of imported computer parts has more than tripled in the first nine months compared with 2025, driven by higher prices of components linked to AI demand.
Globally, Chinese exports show no signs of slowing: this year, it took Beijing only ten months to breach the $1 trillion threshold in its trade surplus with the rest of the world. It stood at $965 billion on the same date last year, $785 billion in 2024, and $684 billion in 2023.