The Houthis launched, on the evening of Wednesday, September 9, a broad offensive in the southern part of Yemen, near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The group’s fighters are said to have seized the port city of Mocha, located within the strait’s bottleneck on the Red Sea, as well as several islands—including Perim, which splits the strait in two, and Zuqar and Hanish, lying a few kilometers off the coast.
Should they manage to consolidate their gains, the Houthis could exert far greater influence over the trade traversing the strait.
- The group had announced on July 20 an embargo targeting Saudi ports and ships passing through Bab el-Mandeb.
- Since then, at least eight Saudi oil tankers have been struck by the Houthis.
This offensive delivers a serious blow to Saudi Arabia, whose Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), urged Donald Trump yesterday, Thursday the 10th, to launch strikes against the group as it moved closer to the strait, according to Axios. The U.S. president refused the appeal, and administration officials clarified that Washington did not intend to intervene directly against the Houthis for the time being.
Although their objectives may diverge, the Houthis’ control of the strait could strengthen Tehran’s leverage.
- Hazem al-Assad, a member of the Houthis’ political bureau, stated today, Friday the 11th, that there is “no reason to worry about freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait.”
- The oil embargo on Saudi Arabia as well as the group’s recent strikes against the kingdom’s oil infrastructure nonetheless threaten its crude exports, which remain below pre-war levels by a considerable margin.
Satellite images taken yesterday, Thursday the 10th, show significant smoke near the East-West Pipeline, which allows Riyadh to export a large portion of its oil without having to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. At this hour, Saudi Arabia has not provided updates on the pipeline’s condition and has not publicly confirmed any damage.
- Brent crude surpassed $108 a barrel on Friday, September 11.
- Saudi oil production fell to 6 million barrels per day in August — down from about 10 million before the start of the war — the lowest level in more than 30 years.
In the face of Washington’s refusal to intervene against the Houthis, Riyadh could turn to Pakistan and Turkey, with whom the kingdom signed a joint defense treaty in August.
- The Pakistani defense minister said on Wednesday the 9th that Riyadh could activate the defense mutuality clause of the agreement.
- Meanwhile, Turkey’s foreign ministry condemned the Houthi strikes in southern Saudi Arabia on Tuesday the 8th.