According to a study conducted by the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, the United States has committed approximately $5.8 trillion across fiscal years 2001 through 2022 for the wars carried out in the Middle East, in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York.
By adding at least $2.2 trillion in future obligations to care for veterans of these conflicts, the total rises to about $8.0 trillion.
- More than 940,000 people have died in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen as direct consequences of these wars, including more than 432,000 civilians.
- These conflicts have caused the indirect deaths of roughly 3.6 to 3.8 million additional people, a substantial portion of whom are children, through malnutrition, the collapse of health systems, and the destruction of infrastructure, bringing the total to 4.6 million deaths.
On average, successive American administrations—from George W. Bush to Joe Biden—have allocated about $275 billion each year, representing between 1% and 1.7% of the United States’ GDP, to the post-2001 wars. By 2050, several tens of billions of dollars more will be spent annually on care and disability benefits for soldiers injured during operations.
- These wars have largely been financed by debt rather than tax increases or the sale of bonds, as was the case for earlier conflicts (Korea, World Wars…)
- They have thus contributed to the surge of American public debt, which rose from 31.5% of GDP in 2001 to 100% today, a level comparable to that reached during World War II.
The cost of the wars on terror had been widely underestimated at the time. In December 2002, Bush dismissed Lawrence B. Lindsey, then the director of the White House National Economic Council, for estimating the Iraq war’s cost at $200 billion. The conflict ultimately cost between $1.8 trillion and $2.0 trillion.
A similar scenario could repeat itself with the war in Iran.
- In July, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, stated that the conflict had cost $37.5 billion over five months. This figure includes notably the cost of replacing missiles and munitions, damaged aircraft, and the repositioning of ships, gear, and logistics to the theater of operations.
- Yet, according to budget expert Linda Bilmes, the final cost could reach $1,000 billion, due especially to rebuilding bases damaged by Iran, replacing stockpiles of ammunition, expanding the production of missile interception systems, and the care that will need to be provided to veterans after the war.
- Added to this are interest on the debt and the permanent increase in the Pentagon’s budget demanded by Trump, which could raise by $100 billion per year.