This Monday, September 28, the war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran enters its eighth month. With a bit more than a month until the midterm elections, which could result in a Republican defeat in both chambers of Congress, no diplomatic resolution to the conflict is in sight.
- Trump rejected this weekend an Iranian proposal to end the war, while yesterday, Sunday the 27th, he stated that he expects “American negotiators to hold new discussions with Tehran this week” 1.
- On the margins of the United Nations General Assembly, Iran had proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting nuclear negotiations within a week, provided that the United States lifts its naval blockade, eases sanctions on oil sales, and respects a ceasefire across the region.
For Vali Nasr, it is highly unlikely that negotiations at this stage will lead to a durable settlement: “Iran believes it won the war in the first forty days and emerged clearly stronger. The Iranians thus feel they have forced Washington to conclude a protocol of agreement that was very favorable to them in June in Pakistan. The Iranian regime thus wants to preserve the protocol of agreement. The United States is seeking victory, or at least for President Trump to claim it. Yet, no negotiation currently allows for that.”
- Meanwhile, Trump said that the American military was facilitating the transit of substantial amounts of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
- A U.S. official confirmed the claim, adding that 22 million barrels of oil had transited the strait on Friday evening.
- According to several experts, the volumes of oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz have roughly recovered to about two-thirds of their pre-war level, due to a sharp rise in Saudi exports.
This uptick in activity could indicate that Tehran’s influence over the maritime route is weakening.
- According to Bloomberg data, Saudi crude oil exports averaged 5.28 million barrels per day during the first 23 days of September, the strongest pace since the start of the conflict 2.
- The price of Brent crude is currently around $107 per barrel, up more than 50% from the same period last year.