China to End the War in Iran on Its Own Terms

On Saturday, September 12, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in New Delhi, the Xinhua News Agency circulated a statement from Xi Jinping in which he said that China is “ready to work with other BRICS members to play a role in establishing peace and stability in the Middle East and the Gulf region.” The Chinese president added that “war has inflicted severe losses on the populations across the entire region and does not serve the common interests of the international community” ¹.

• Having kept a diplomatic low profile since the conflict began on February 28, this statement arrives as other mediation efforts appear blocked: the April 8 ceasefire and the June 17 Islamabad memorandum failed in July, and Donald Trump has just refused the military backing that MBS was seeking against the Houthis.
• A meeting on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which was supposed to take place today, September 14, and in which Oman, Iran, and other regional countries were to participate, has been postponed.
• For Vali Nasr, this is a “turning point” moment. China is “finally laying out its cards of global power” and the outcome of this initiative “will change the game for the Middle East as well as for Sino-American relations” ².
• This statement actually fits into a well-established Chinese diplomatic doctrine. Since the normalization agreement between Riyadh and Tehran, negotiated in Beijing in March 2023, and the “Beijing Declaration” bringing Palestinian factions together in July 2024, China has used mediation in the Middle East as a showcase of its contribution to global security.

This Chinese declaration also comes twelve days ahead of Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington, scheduled for September 24.

• The White House has indicated that the American president intends to address the Iranian dossier directly with the Chinese delegation ³.
• By presenting himself as a potential mediator, Xi arrives in Washington with a concrete proposal, while the Trump administration seeks a way out of the crisis before the midterm elections.

This mediation stance, however, contrasts with reports about the role played by China and Russia in the conflict in Iran.

• According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. intelligence has concluded that the regime obtained from Chinese sources high-resolution satellite imagery of the Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan before the July 17 ballistic-missile attack that killed three American soldiers, the first combat losses since the April ceasefire ⁴. Washington had already sanctioned in May three Chinese space-imaging companies (MizarVision, Earth Eye and Chang Guang).
• Beijing denied any involvement and denounced an attempt to “smear” China’s reputation.
• Yet American analysts believe that these images constitute only one of several sources feeding Iran’s targeting, alongside Russian support, which, according to the Financial Times, includes cooperation on the propulsion of hypersonic cruise missiles initiated in 2023 and continued in 2026 ⁵.

The offer from Xi Jinping must also be understood in a declarative and rhetorical dimension rather than a substantive one, with no guarantees about Iran’s nuclear program, nor about potential future American or Israeli strikes.

• Contrary to what some media outlets, including Al Jazeera, reported, Xi Jinping limits himself to proposing mediation within the framework of a BRICS+ collective action, a forum that groups together countries currently in open conflict, such as Iran and the United Arab Emirates. A meeting between the two countries took place on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit on September 12.
• This format allows Beijing to share the political cost of the initiative, to move away from the Islamabad channel led by Pakistan and the United States, and to anchor any potential settlement in a “Global South” that China seeks to lead.
• China will take the BRICS presidency in 2027. The Middle East conflict is the only issue mentioned in the declaration signed in New Delhi, which does not mention the war in Ukraine.

China is also the world’s top buyer of Iranian oil and heavily dependent on the Gulf for its energy imports.