According to leaked satellite imagery and official Russian documents, Moscow has built new drone launch ramps at 10 bases located near Europe. Some are already used to carry out strikes in Ukraine, but they could also be employed to launch drones against NATO member countries.
- Three of these bases are located on Ukrainian territory that is currently occupied: two in Crimea, at Kacha in the west, and Cape Chauda in the east of the peninsula, and one in Donetsk, in the southeast of Ukraine.
- Those along the border with Belarus and Ukraine have at least 59 launch ramps, which allow fixed-wing drones to take off without a traditional runway.
- Some of these bases were built ex nihilo in the Russian campaign so as to be less exposed to satellites, while others have been converted from existing civilian or military airports.
These new bases notably enable the launch of the Geran-5, the new Russian industry-modified version of the Iranian Shahed drone, which can cover a distance of 1,000 kilometers at a speed of 600 km/h, and which allows them to evade certain air defences.
Overall, the territories of 11 NATO countries would be within reach of these new sites.
- Russia, which continues to invest heavily in drones, would be able to produce around 3,000 Geran 4 and 5 each month.
- If a large number of these drones are fired at Ukraine, satellite imagery also shows extensive storage sites capable of housing up to 1,000 drones, some of which would have been supplied by munitions factories spread across Russian territory, notably by the Alabuga industrial park which alone produces 6,000 units per year.
At least 38 incidents involving Russian drones have occurred in Europe between March 2022 and May 2026, according to a review by RTBF. Nine of these crashes caused material damage, notably in Moldova, Romania and the Baltic states.
Russian drones continue to be regularly intercepted in the airspaces of European countries, particularly Romania, which to date is the most affected country.
- Sunday, August 16, a Spanish fighter jet deployed under an NATO mission destroyed a drone that appears to be of Russian origin a few kilometres north of Galați.
- It is the fourth drone destroyed by NATO over Romania since the beginning of the year.
- In the night of September 9 to 10, at least 19 Russian drones had penetrated the Polish airspace, requiring the intervention of fighter jets from the Polish and Dutch air forces.
U.S. intelligence considers that a “limited Russian attack” against a NATO country could take place as early as this autumn, in order to test the Alliance’s resolve. In earlier assessments, Washington believed that Putin would not provoke a NATO member while the war in Ukraine remained active.