The banana is one of the most widely consumed fruits across the globe: for 400 million people, it accounts for up to more than a quarter (27%) of daily caloric intake, and every person on Earth consumes about 12 kilograms per year. In the United States, bananas are eaten more than apples.
The fruit as we know it could, however, disappear.
- Bananas are increasingly affected by Fusarium, the fungus responsible for tropical race 4 Fusarium wilt, commonly abbreviated as TR4.
- The first race of this disease (TR1) had been linked to the near-eradication of another banana variety, the Gros Michel, which was the most cultivated worldwide until the 1950s.
- The successor to Gros Michel, the Cavendish banana, could face the same fate. The impact of this disease adds to the risk posed by climate change to banana cultivation.
Today, the banana is predominantly cultivated in Asia, notably in India, which accounts for 27% of global production. For several years, periods of intense heat affecting the country have led to increasing harvest losses, particularly in Andhra Pradesh, a state bordering the Bay of Bengal.
- In Latin America and the Caribbean, the second-largest banana-producing region, up to 60% of the most favorable banana-growing areas could disappear by 2080 due to climate change.
- To reach maturity, bananas require temperatures ranging from a minimum of 15°C to a maximum of 35°C. An excess of water can cause the banana plants’ leaves to droop, making photosynthesis more difficult.
According to a 2024 study published by researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, TR4 would not have evolved from the initial strain that led to the Gros Michel’s disappearance. Its virulence might be linked to genes associated with nitric oxide production, which could open the door to treatments and strategies aimed at slowing the spread of the disease.
- As with other crops, banana cultivation is expected to endure in the coming decades the effects of extreme weather, diseases, and pests, fostered by climate change.
- The rise in temperatures—and in particular the increasing frequency of extreme heat waves—could drive up food prices by as much as 3% per year starting in 2035.