Taiwan will close today, Friday August 14, its 42nd annual Han Kuang military exercise, the largest of the year. For nine days, 20,000 troops, including 5,000 reservists, were trained to counter a Chinese attack by simulating several scenarios, ranging from an amphibious assault to the defense of strategic infrastructure.
- The peculiarity of this exercise lies in its civil-military dimension: on Thursday the 13th, Taipei’s population had to clear the streets as warning sirens sounded, simulating an aerial attack on the capital.
- At the start of the week, mobile traffic was deliberately slowed across much of the island for the first time since 1984, to simulate disruption of communications.
- On Wednesday the 5th, last week, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te and members of his cabinet were evacuated to a fortified command center as part of a simulation of a decapitation attempt on the government.
- Since 2014, Chinese troops have trained at Zhurihe in Inner Mongolia, inside a full-scale replica of the Taipei presidential palace. The site has since expanded and now also includes models of the Ministry of National Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The exercise constitutes the culmination of a preparation cycle whose active phase began several weeks earlier. In July, during a press conference, Lieutenant General Li Tian-long, deputy chief of staff of the Taiwanese Army, said that Han Kuang 42 was taking place “continuously, throughout the year”.
This development reflects the heightened risk that Beijing poses to the island: on Tuesday, the Chinese Ministry of Defense announced that a joint “navigation exercise” with Indonesia would take place mid-August in waters east of Taiwan, an announcement Taipei described as “dangerous behavior that calls into question the status quo.” Indonesia, which traditionally pursues neutrality, had also participated in joint exercises with Russia in 2024.
- In recent years, Han Kuang has shifted from a largely scripted simulation, criticized for its lack of realism, to training that includes improvised exercises, thereby giving officers and non-commissioned officers more leeway.
- Han Kuang also places greater emphasis on a “whole-of-society defense resilience” approach, overseen since 2024 by a committee (全社會防衛韌性) created and chaired by Lai Ching-te.
The cyber aspect and the threat of an economic war, which would notably manifest as a blockade of the island, also occupy a more prominent place in Taiwan’s preparation.
- At the beginning of July, suspected Chinese hackers used artificial intelligence to infiltrate Taiwan’s government systems.
- The attack also targeted Taiwan’s Nuclear Safety Administration as well as seven energy-sector companies.
According to Bloomberg Economics, a war between China and Taiwan could trigger a global GDP drop of nearly 10%.
- The major Asian economies, notably South Korea (-23%), Japan (-15%), and China (-11%), would be among the most affected countries.