According to the figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, June was the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since April 2022: at least 293 people were killed and 1,990 were injured. While summers since 2023 have been marked by a higher civilian toll in Ukraine, the figure continues to grow each year, and has doubled between the first half of 2024 and 2026, rising from 4,382 killed or wounded to 9,374.
- The rise in civilian casualties is one of the direct consequences of the mass deployment of the air campaign conducted by Russia against Ukrainian cities.
- In July, Moscow launched 376 missiles at Ukraine, the highest figure since the start of the war, marking a 90% year-on-year increase.
- The number of drones fired has also surged, and nearly reached 10,000 drones in May. At the same time in 2024, the Russian army was able to fire only about 500 drones per month.
Ukraine, while firing considerably fewer projectiles than Russia – 29 per day on average in July, including cross-border artillery fire, missiles and drones, against 174 for Russia –, nevertheless massively expands its air capabilities, causing an increase in civilian casualties.
Unlike the Russian army, Ukraine does not deliberately target civilian infrastructure in Russia or residential buildings.
- Its latest air campaigns, in particular, have targeted sites that are in close proximity to urban centers, such as oil refineries or warehouses belonging to the Wildberries company.
- The Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent Russian research center that produces OSINT analyses, estimates that 327 civilians were killed in Russia as a result of bombardments, drone attacks and air strikes by Ukrainian forces, i.e., twice as many as in 2025 (145 civilian deaths) .
- The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for its part, says that nearly 800 civilians have been killed since the start of the year.
Drones have become the dominant weapon used by the Ukrainian army for its strikes in Russia.
- They account for 86% of Russian civilian casualties recorded by ACLED this year, compared with 0% in 2022.
- The devices are now more sophisticated, and also travel farther: 17% strike targets located more than 150 kilometers from the border, versus only 5% in 2024 and 13% last year.
Russia continues to invest massively in the production of drones and missiles. The country is now able to exceed its production targets for certain models, such as the Kh-101 cruise missiles, the Kalibr missiles, and the Kh-35, and produces around 3,000 Geran 4 and 5 drones per month .