Thursday, August 6, Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas publicly released an assessment from military intelligence indicating that Moscow was considering using captured Ukrainian drones to mount an attack on the Baltic states in the form of a false-flag operation targeting critical infrastructure. Kaunas described these findings as a realistic scenario.
- At the same time, Kaunas added that there is currently no indication that Russia has decided to act, nor that an attack is imminent, even if Moscow possessed Ukrainian drones.
- According to the scenario described by Vilnius, Moscow might believe that the Baltic states have opened their airspace to Ukrainian drones to strike Russia. If a Ukrainian drone were refurbished and launched against Baltic infrastructure, the true origin of the attack could be concealed and any involvement in a strike on NATO territory could be denied.
- Lithuania is currently considering establishing a Ukrainian drone factory on its soil. Although the country has been one of Kyiv’s main supporters, Kaunas said he had not authorized Ukraine to use its airspace to conduct attacks against Russia.
- Moscow has not yet responded to these statements, but in July, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov had described the warnings from the Baltic states as fear tactics aimed at justifying “militarization against Russia.”
This is not an isolated statement.
- The Polish media outlet Onet reported on June 30 that Moscow could be preparing a limited military provocation against Poland, with the United States warning Warsaw of new Russian plans targeting NATO’s eastern flank. Similar statements about a possible false-flag attack by Russia were also made by Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski.
- In an interview with the Financial Times in April, Donald Tusk stated that Russia could strike a NATO member “in the coming months.” On July 3, he said the coming months could be critical, with particular concerns about the Baltic states.
- The Lithuanian president Nausėda referred to information about operations limited to critical infrastructure.
- His Latvian counterpart Rinkēvičs judged the next twelve months decisive as well.
This statement comes as a drone loaded with explosives was discovered the day before near a Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig Airport in Germany.
- While German Interior Minister Dobrindt speaks of a hybrid attack scenario, he does not name any perpetrator.
Sources
- “Lithuania says Russia could use Ukrainian drones against Baltic region”, Reuters, 6 August 2026.
- Aidan Stretch, “Poland’s deputy prime minister says Russia could launch a ‘false flag operation’ to justify an attack on a NATO state”, CBS News, 26 June 2026.
- Henry Foy, Barbara Moens, “Polish PM questions whether US is ‘loyal’ to Europe’s defence”, Financial Times, 24 April 2026.
- Amy Walker, “Polish PM warns critical months ahead in face of Russian threat”, BBC, 3 July 2026.
- “Lithuania says Russia is planning attacks on infrastructure”, Reuters, 15 July 2026.
- “The coming months will be crucial for Baltic security, Rinkēvičs warns”, Baltic News Network, 15 July 2026.